SIMULATING THE IMPACTS OF TRADE RESTRICTIONS: AN APPLICATION TO THE EUROPEAN SALMON TRADE

During the last decade there has been a number of conflicts in relation to the trade of salmon in the EU. A 5-year agreement between Norway and the EU including an import constraint and a voluntary minimum import price agreement for exporter just expired, with a 13% tariff to be paid by exporters that do not accept the agreement. A year after the agreement expired, there are again calls for safeguard measure to protect EU-producers. We investigate the expected welfare effects of this tariff by analyzing a general equilibrium demand curve. In contrast to earlier studies we use a derived demand approach rather the consumer demand as most available data are at the trade level. The results indicate that only Norwegian exporters are beneficial to target for EU producers. The total welfare effect of the tariff depends critically on the supply structure of EU and Norwegian salmon.     

THE RUSSIAN SEAFOOD REVOLUTION: SHIFTING CONSUMPTION TOWARDS AQUACULTURE PRODUCTS

A food consumption revolution is taking place in Russia. After decades of severe constraints on food consumption options under the communist regime Russian consumers are now adopting new food products—including seafood products – at a high pace. Since Russian consumers have previously had very limited seafood consumption choices, the market can be seen as an interesting laboratory for investigating consumer responses to products that have previously not been available. Among imported seafood products are both wild and farmed species. Furthermore, Russian imports include both traditional species such as herring, and ‘new’ species such as pangasius. We analyze market integration among seafood products using Russian monthly import prices from 2002 to 2007 on several products, such as herring, salmonids and pangasius. We find that pangasius compete in the white fish segment, and is a price leader. In the salmonids market, farmed salmon trout appears to be the price leader, both in the fresh and frozen market segment.     

Aquaculture and international trade

Abstract

In contrast to the stabilization or decline of wild fishery harvests, aquaculture's contribution to the world fish supply is steadily increasing. Aquaculture has begun to have a major influence on the trade of export‐orientated species such as salmon and shrimp. This paper reviews the role of aquaculture in international trade and the research which has been conducted to examine its influence. Despite the growing significance of aquaculture on international trade, especially for shrimp and salmon, formal analysis of the shrimp trade is sparse, only moderate for salmon, and essentially nonexistent for other species. This paper also presents specific examples of how aquaculture has played an important role in international trade. These include an examination of: (1) the influence of shrimp aquaculture and trade on the development of a shrimp futures contract; and (2) the countervailing duty and antidumping case against the Norwegian farmed salmon industry.     

山东省虚拟水贸易问题研究——基于投入产出分析方法

山东省水资源短缺,且时空分布不均,水资源问题已成为制约其社会经济可持续发展的重要因素之一。采用投入产出分析方法,基于投入产出和用水量数据,对山东省虚拟水贸易进行了计算,提出虚拟水量计算的新思路,对结果进行了分析,从分行业和时间的角度分别进行讨论,并提出水资源配置和产业结构调整的相关建议。研究结论表明,虚拟水及虚拟水贸易的研究对山东省缓解水资源问题,实现新时期生态环境和社会经济的可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

The role of CITES in the conservation of marine fishes subject to international trade

All possible tools need to be marshalled for marine fish conservation. Yet controversy has swirled around what role, if any, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) should play for marine fishes. This paper analyses the relevance and applicability of CITES as a complementary tool for fisheries management. CITES currently regulates the international trade of very few marine fish species, by listing them in its Appendices. After the first meeting of the Parties (member countries) in 1976, no new marine fish taxa were added to the CITES Appendices until 2002, when Parties agreed to act to ensure sustainable and legal international trade in seahorses (Hippocampus spp.) and two species of sharks. Progress has continued haltingly, adding only one more shark, humphead wrasse (Cheilinus undulatus) and sawfishes by 2012. Parties voice concerns that may include inadequate data, applicability of CITES listing criteria, roles of national fisheries agencies, enforcement challenges, CITES' lack of experience with marine fishes, and/or identification and by‐catch problems. A common query is the relationship between CITES and other international agreements. Yet all these arguments can be countered, revealing CITES to be a relevant and appropriate instrument for promoting sound marine fisheries management. In reality, Parties that cannot implement CITES effectively for marine fishes will also need help to manage their fisheries sustainably. CITES action complements and supports other international fisheries management measures. As CITES engages with more marine fish listings, there will be greater scope to analyse its effectiveness in supporting different taxa in different contexts.     

Assessing and managing data‐limited ornamental fisheries in coral reefs

Coral reefs support numerous ornamental fisheries, but there are concerns about stock sustainability due to the volume of animals caught. Such impacts are difficult to quantify and manage because fishery data are often lacking. Here, we suggest a framework that integrates several data‐poor assessment and management methods in order to provide management guidance for fisheries that differ widely in the kinds and amounts of data available. First, a resource manager could assess the status of the ecosystem (using quantitative metrics where data are available and semi‐quantitative risk assessment where they are not) and determine whether overall fishing mortality should be reduced. Next, productivity susceptibility analysis can be used to estimate vulnerability to fishing using basic information on life history and the nature of the fishery. Information on the relative degree of exploitation (e.g. export data or ratios of fish density inside and outside no‐take marine reserves) is then combined with the vulnerability ranks to prioritize species for precautionary management and further analysis. For example, species that are both highly exploited and vulnerable are good candidates for precautionary reductions in allowable capture. Species that appear to be less vulnerable could be managed on a stock‐specific basis to prevent over‐exploitation of some species resulting from the use of aggregate catch limits. The framework could be applied to coral reef ornamental fisheries which typically lack landings, catch‐per‐unit‐effort and age‐size data to generate management guidance to reduce overfishing risk. We illustrate the application of this framework to an ornamental fishery in Indonesia.     

人民币汇率变动对中国小麦进口贸易的影响研究

随着世界经济的一体化,汇率在世界资源配置中的作用越发突出。人民币升值有其积极的一面,而其消极影响也不容忽视。在中国农产品国际贸易中,小麦占据着举足轻重的地位,人民币汇率变动将对中国小麦的进口贸易产生怎样的影响？针对不同的影响应提出怎样的措施成为本研究的目的。文章在汇率变动对进口贸易影响一般原理的基础上,从实证角度构建C-D函数形式的计量经济模型,运用回归分析、单位根检验、协整关系检验、Granger因果检验以及脉冲响应函数等计量经济学方法,探讨人民币汇率变动对中国小麦进口贸易的影响。通过实证研究发现,人民币名义有效汇率变动对中国小麦进口贸易的影响存在时滞效应,加入滞后一期（1个月）的汇率,人民币升值对中国小麦进口存在着促进作用。在人民币名义有效汇率升值的情况下,中国小麦进口贸易也存在反J曲线效应。最后,从政府、企业、农户3个角度给出相应的建议。     

基于决策树方法的大豆进口依存度预警研究

预警是排警的基础,传统的预警是建立在预测的基础上,针对大豆预警提出了一种新的方法-决策树预警。从中国大豆生产的实际出发,运用预警的相关理论,首先针对近18 年的中国大豆市场,建立了预警指标体系;然后利用决策树的方法从各警兆指标对警情指标的影响中提取了若干规则集,建立了中国大豆进口依存度预警体系,结果表明：2002年至今,中国大豆进口依存度一直处于重警的状态。     

木材合法性认证及其对中国木质林产品贸易的影响

木材非法采伐及其相关贸易是导致许多发展中国家毁林和森林退化的重要原因。森林破坏反过来导致约20%的全球碳排放。许多政府和私人部门以及国际社会纷纷采取措施确保木材的合法性。随之而来的木材合法性认证越来越普遍。文中概述木材合法性认证的概念及认证体系,归纳木材合法性认证的要点、局限性和启示,简要分析木材合法性认证对中国木质林产品贸易的影响。     

中国与中亚国家的农业机械产品贸易研究

[目的]探讨中国与哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦两国的农业机械产品贸易现状和贸易关系,为进一步加强中国与中亚国家的农业机械产品贸易提供对策建议.[方法]在利用统计描述法分析中国与哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦两国的农业机械产品贸易现状的基础上,利用RCA与出口相似度指数对中国与哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦两国的农业机械产品贸易关系进行测算.[结果]哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦两国都是农业机械产品的进口国,并且中国对哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦两国的农业机械产品贸易中呈现出以出口贸易为主的特征.在显性比较优势方面,中国与哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦两国在农业机械产品贸易中互补性较强.[结论]在发展中国与中亚国家的双边贸易时,中国应充分利用双边在农业机械产品贸易上的互补性,发挥比较优势,促进农业机械产品出口贸易的发展.